Bolivia overview from Le Monde Diplomatique
Le Monde Diplomatique (paid subscription required), November 2005
AN ELECTION FOR CHANGE AND PROMISE
Bolivia: an Amayra for president
By Maurice Lemoine
Bolivians will go to the polls on 4 December - unless a last-minute ploy by the right leads to a postponement - in what will be a historic general election. For despite chronic divisions and rivalries, Bolivia's social movements are in a position to take power and make Evo Morales South America's first indigenous president.
THERE is a tin mine at Huanini, among the labyrinthine crevices of the altiplano (1). Compared with gold, silver, oil or gas, tin is a modest reason to pierce 240 metres into the earth and struggle through kilometres of oppressive tunnels, but it is a reason, and so 850 miners extract the metal, earning around $125 a month. The mine is open 24 hours a day. "And we work Sundays," says a miner, "to earn triple time." Huanini's workers have nothing to lose. When they have to, they storm La Paz, dynamite sticks in hand. "There have been deaths, but we played a key role in ousting Goni and Mesa," the same miner says.
"Goni" is Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, Bolivia's ultra-liberal president, overthrown in October 2003 by a popular uprising that left 86 people dead. Carlos Mesa was his vice-president and successor, who stepped down on 6 June 2005, after three weeks of unrest.
Since 1985 all Bolivian governments, including purported leftwing ones, have dogmatically pursued the economic policy set forth in directive 21060, centred on the privatisation of mines, telecoms, water, electricity, transport, and the oil and gas sector.
Privatisation of the tin mines brought 25,000 redundancies and a severe blow to the Central Obrero Boliviano (COB), of which the miners had been the heart. The COB was the main counterweight to state power in Bolivia from the April 1952 revolution until the
1980s, and led the struggle against dictatorship. But after the mining redundancies came factory closures and the fall of the iron curtain, and by the end of the 1980s the Marxist-dominated movement had lost much of its force. The social battlefield was empty, or so
it seemed. In fact, as sociologist Alvaro Garcia Linera explains, "Society then created other forms of representation and political action: social movements, structured around area networks".
Problem number one: surviving
The first were the cocaleros of the Chapare region. Producing coca was the solution to the locals' number one problem: survival. But Washington made no secret of its displeasure. In its crusade against narcotraffic, the White House is obsessed with coercive policies of
repression and forced eradication to get rid of coca and cocaleros, making no distinction between them. But a leader emerged to stand against the United States: an Aymara called Evo Morales.
In 2000 resistance started in Cochabamba, whose people kicked out Bechtel, the multinational that extracted vast profits from privatised drinking water. Things stirred in Bolivia. The establishment began to teeter. Spreading out from the cocalero movement, Morales created a wider, national body: the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), more a confederation of social organisations than a political party. Elected as a congressman in 1997, he lost the 2002 presidential election by a narrow margin, but MAS won 36
parliamentary seats (including Morales's own seat). Municipal elections two years later made it the largest party in the country.
Other organisations worked in parallel to MAS. These included the powerful Sole Confederation of Campesino Workers of Bolivia (CSUTCB), the social base for the radical Pachakuti Indigenous Movement (MIP), and the Bolivian Landless Movement (MST-B). The remains of the COB and its affiliated Regional Labour Confederations (COR), were active, along with cooperatives and water protest movements. Neighbourhood committees sprang up, most importantly in El Alto, a dormitory slum
perched on ochre dust 15 minutes' walk above the city of La Paz, and home to 800,000 former peasants and miners. There the Federation of Neighbourhood Committees (Fejuves) stood up to Aguas de Illimani, a subsidiary of multinational Suez-Lyonnaise des Eaux.
After water came the fight for gas. Bolivia produces oil and has the largest gas reserves in Latin America after Venezuela. The constitution enshrines the state's inalienable ownership of all natural resources "in the ground". But, shockingly, Law No 1689 was
passed on 30 April 1996 to allow private ownership of hydrocarbons as soon as they pop out from "in the ground" - right from the top of the wells. Exploration, exploitation, transport, refining and distribution all fell into the hands of the multinationals. Oil and
gas reserves discovered after 1996, or unexploited up to then, were considered new and therefore taxed at 18%. The rate on old reserves was 50%, although the most flagrantly artificial excuses often sufficed to have them reclassified as new.
Ignoring popular anger, Sanchez de Lozada planned largescale exportation of liquefied natural gas to California. The project would have enriched the Pacific LNG consortium but impoverished Bolivia. It involved the construction of a pipeline across Chile, Bolivia's sworn enemy since the disastrous war of 1879. When people protested, "Goni"
had his forces fire on the crowd. When they refused to be cowed, he fled to the US. Vice-president Carlos Mesa took over.
The forces representing the people shared two main demands: that the state regain control over natural resources and nationalize hydrocarbons, and that a constituent assembly be created. Under pressure, and with Morales's backing, Mesa organised a referendum on
hydrocarbons, held on 18 July 2004. A majority of 70% voted to reclaim their national property.
On 21 October Congress passed a new law increasing state intervention in the oil industry and creating a direct tax on hydrocarbons, 32% at production. Combined with the 18% tax already in force, this brought the state's share of revenues to 50%. Mesa tried to fight this law, which he considered abusive and confiscatory. Many, including MAS, saw it as a step forward. But the radicals of the COR and the Fejuves, along with the COB and the MIP, saw it as betrayal. They wanted full nationalisation and no compensation for ousted
multinationals.
This is the key to the chronic fragmentation of this powerful protest, which is capable of such unity in times of crisis. "Territorial, ideological, religious and class differences" divide the movement, explained Garcia Linera, whom many consider its ideologue: "This movement builds community-based units working on everyday problems - water, electricity. In times of tension, these turn into a force for collective action, which works as a mass movement at the peak of the confrontation, only to fall back into the old divisions once the common goal has been achieved."
Under attack
In the 2002 elections Washington joined the Bolivian right in branding Morales a "narco-cocalero", an "agent of Chavez and Castro", and a "friend of [Colombia's Revolutionary Armed Forces] the Farc". But now the MAS leader is being attacked from the left, as the more radical elements in the movement criticise him. "Evo is a traitor," claims Jaime Solares, leader of the COB. "He promised to fight for nationalisation and he hasn't done it. He's in cahoots with the government." There are many conspiracy theories that describe Morales as an agent of the CIA and believe in a US State Department strategy
to stifle social protest in Bolivia.
But Morales has stood firm: "There has been no pact with Mesa, no alliance. When there are unwelcome proposals, we reject them. When there are good ones, such as the referendum, we support them." MAS did attack Mesa when it transpired that the president planned to wait until the protests ran out of steam. The result was the opposite: the unrest did not calm as radicals and moderates from rural and urban areas increased efforts, even harder when the neoliberal right began to reorganise in its rich, white strongholds of Santa Cruz and Tarija. There, civic committees began to demand autonomy, allowing each region total control of its financial and natural resources.
Since most of Bolivia's oil and gas is in these eastern provinces, this was a ploy to allow a return to the earlier conditions that had favoured the multinationals, staunch allies of the elite.
El Alto descended on the streets of La Paz. There was a proposal to set up a revolutionary assembly, a basis for a workers' and peasants' state under COB leadership. For moderates, this proposed soviet, which aimed to overwhelm the conciliatory Morales, was a hard-left
provocation that would play into the hands of the right. The COB leadership called on the army to act, as though the years of dictatorship had never happened. Amid rumours of an imminent coup, Morales denounced the ambitions of the Nacion Camba autonomy movement around Santa Cruz, but he favoured a constitutional resolution to the conflict. The opposition, which is made up of many changeable and often opportunist organisations ready to make pacts, do deals and betray each other, would not compromise. Bringing Bolivia to a standstill, it forced Mesa to resign on 6 June 2005.
Constitutionally, Congress could have allowed the senate speaker, Hormando Vaca Diez, to assume the presidency. Vaca Diez, the senator for Santa Cruz for the Left Revolutionary Movement party (MIR), which had become neoliberal and corrupt, had support from the establishment parties: New Republican Force (NFR), Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN) plus Sanchez de Lozada's MNR. But the people did not want him, as a landowning grandee certain to appease the oil lobby. The revolt continued. Mario Cossio (MNR), speaker for the lower house and an ally of "Goni", was next in line. But Congress, fearing a civil war, took the safer option of Eduardo Rodriguez, head of the supreme court and the only candidate in a position to call early elections. He
negotiated a political agreement to end the chaos, and had Congress approve an amendment to the constitution (article 93), before naming the election day.
"Historic elections"
"These are historic elections," says Alex Contreras, head of the First of May People's School in Cochabamba. Given Morales's excellent chances, it is a widely held view. "For the first time, Bolivia's popular and indigenous movements are on the verge of taking power." Morales would be the first indigenous president in South America.
Yet after this joint triumph, the social movement's two main blocs returned to their quarrels. The more radical elements, grouped around the COB, the MIP and the El Alto Fejuves, are most active in the Aymara areas on the altiplano, where they make much of the ethnicity issue. MAS and its allies enjoy support among peasant farmers but have a more inclusive, nationwide approach. They are popular with urban wage-earners, having established links with corporations and integrated a larger number of mixed-race Bolivians.
At the COB headquarters Solares speaks of nothing short of a full "worker-peasant revolution: that means seizing power by popular insurrection". His symbolic vocabulary may be a ploy to divert attention from his shady past (2). "We, the workers, believe that we are on the cusp of civil war or revolution," he declares. An astute observer notes the COB no longer has many supporters, but "it hides its limited ability to mobilise - driven only by indigenous people and peasants -behind ultra-radical rhetoric. It poses as the left's guilty conscience. Solares knows his spiel is unrealistic, but he doesn't care: he keeps cornering MAS by taking the liberty to say whatever he likes."
Roberto de la Cruz, leader of the COR in El Alto, employs similar tactics. He proclaims radical ideas: setting up a popular assembly, sending shock squads to fight the cambas, creating an army of national liberation. He is ideologically confused, but decisive and
rousing in crisis, as is Abel Mamani, head of the El Alto Fejuves, said to have the virtue of understanding that resistance is vital. He has a winning hand in resistance, although he is politically inexperienced.
Felipe Quispe leads the CSUTCB indigenous peasants' movement. During the 1980s and early 1990s he led the Tupac Katari guerrilla army (EG-TK) until he was arrested and jailed for five years. Quispe dreams of a new Collasuyo (3). "We want to build our own confederate state, our own government led by an indigenous president, our own army, our own economy as the descendants of Huyana Capac, the sovereign government of the Incas." Seeing the situation as a race war, he makes no distinction between right and left among non-indigenous people, known as q'aras. His view of recent events was: "The people have triumphed. We beat both Mesa and MAS, which had done a deal with him."
Political and ideological differences between the factions exist. But the divisions are also, perhaps primarily, the result of personal rivalries. Quispe did not appreciate being supplanted by his younger fellow cobrizo (4), Morales, as leader of the indigenous peoples and the opposition at large. There is resentment from less powerful leaders, too. Mamani does not dispute Morales's position, but refuses to be subordinated to him.
Leaders of the COB, the MIP and the Fejuves are frustrated by the unique success of MAS in spreading from the local to the national level. These organisations all dream of forming a new political force, but none has the means to do so.
The combination of personal ambition and ideological confusion can have strange effects. Solares claimed that Morales "has never spoken for the workers or the proletariat: he only has time for coca, rural territories and [indigenous] identity" before announcing: "We are
going to form a grand revolutionary alliance with Felipe Quispe," the most intransigent indigenous leader in Latin America. Solares's vice-presidential candidature in alliance with Quispe and the MIP fizzled out. Mamani has promised to support either MAS or the group of six mayors (of La Paz, Cochabamba, Potos, Sucre, Oruro and Cobija), who claim to represent the modern left but are in fact deeply divided in strategic and ideological terms, several being markedly neoliberal.
Even the smaller organisations play hard to get. "Their decisions are not based on the underlying issues," says Contreras, "but on what will earn them the most power in Congress, being with MAS or against it." This climate has prevented, or at least delayed, the formation of any real alliance. Morales has been known to sigh: "If only we were as good at replacing presidents in Latin America as we are at kicking them out." He says: "We hope all parties will participate. But we have to consider the situation seriously. I do not take a maximalist position proposing armed struggle and insurrection, or a coup. I'm banking on a new social and economic model born of popular consciousness and democracy."
The demand from below
Is this a pre-revolutionary crisis with insufficient political expression? Not necessarily: the people do not always follow those who claim to represent them. In El Alto, as Nestor Guillon of Villa el Ingenio (Fejuves) explains, the demonstrations were originally organised by the leaders -"Comrades, we must take to the streets". But the situation gradually changed. Now, local residents decide: "We must get out and march." The demand comes from below. "El Alto's capacity for mobilisation doesn't depend on the Fejuves," says Guillon, "but on what neighbourhood and block-based assemblies decide. Without them, Mamani can call all the demonstrations he likes; no one will follow him." The majority of El Alto's inhabitants voted in the referendum on hydrocarbons, despite their leader's calls for a boycott. In so doing, they implicitly backed MAS and look
likely to do so again in the forthcoming elections.
Quispe shot himself in the foot in 2002 by renouncing his congressional seat shortly after being elected (for the MIP, which has six seats). "I'd rather do the political work I've always done, out in the field," he declared. Asked whether he hoped to return to parliament, he replied with characteristic frankness: "I wasn't born to be a congressman; I was born to be president." The episode damaged his reputation. "That attitude shows that he's not cut out to be a politician," Guillon concludes. Morales "took up his parliamentary
seat, has stayed at the helm, kept up the struggle and consistently opposed the system".
This August MAS scored a decisive point by naming Garcia Linera as its vice-presidential candidate. The sociologist had fought alongside Quispe in the EG-TK; he had been imprisoned until 1995. Garcia Linera is influential within the social movement. His position has earned him kudos and credibility: "I've been a guerrillero and I don't
regret it; I'm still the same as I was 15 years ago; it's just that I've changed tactics." Soon after his nomination, six peasant federations pledged their support to MAS, as did sections of the mining cooperatives, the important COR of Oruro, Potoso and Cochabamba, transport workers from El Alto and even the Fejuves (5). Garcia Linera's position as one of Bolivia's most influential intellectuals extended MAS influence into academia and the middle classes. Polls showed a surge in popularity for MAS, to the detriment of the US-preferred candidate, Jorge Quiroga of the ADN.
The neoliberals panicked. Hoping to gain breathing space, they sought to have the elections postponed. Forgetting that the early elections had only been called thanks to a political agreement to act outside the constitution, the congressmen of Santa Cruz went to the constitutional court on 4 August and pointed out that the constitution stipulates that seats in Congress be distributed according to the latest census figures. The results of the 2001 census had not been taken into account. Since it showed population rises in La Paz, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, they had the right to greater parliamentary representation. On 22 September the court upheld the objection, leading to uncertainty and unrest.
Whatever the precise date of the election, its main themes are already established: the creation of a constituent assembly and the nationalisation of hydrocarbons. MAS is confident of victory, but does not intend to do anything rash. "Nationalisation without
compensation," notes Contreras, "would take us back to the 1960s. But in such a small country, dependent on international aid, it would put us in a worse situation than Cuba faces with the blockade [US embargo]" (6). Garcia Linera agrees: "It is a question of power relationships. I favour a pragmatic solution. What are you going to do about Petrobras otherwise? [That company is backed by] the government of Brazil, a nation of 80 million people! We have to show prudence."
Morales sums up: "A lot of multinationals live off illegal and anti-constitutional deals, smuggling and tax evasion. We will enforce the law. But we are banking on nationalisation through dialogue and consensus." In perspective, this resembles the strategy of Venezuela's Bolivarian revolution under Hugo Chavez: development in
which the state plays a central role, but that can involve foreign investment. MAS's plans for a constituent assembly also resemble Venezuela -since the majority of Bolivia's inhabitants are indigenous people, it will be their majority assembly and will be granted full sovereignty, to the chagrin of the white elite.
The US is not wrong to brand Morales enemy number one. "It is no secret that Evo Morales reports back to Havana and Caracas," Washington's assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, Roger Noriega, said recently. To which Morales replied, on 31 July, upon formally declaring his candidature: "Chavez and Fidel are in no way part of any axis of evil. They are the commanders of the liberating forces of this continent." His moderation knows its limits.
(1) The high Andean plateau that stretches from western Bolivia to southeastern Peru.
(2) There is evidence that Solares used to act as an informer for state security services, turning in several miners' leaders.
(3) The eastern, largest province of the Inca empire: western Bolivia, parts of southern Peru, northern Argentina and Chile.
(4) Copper-coloured, as indigenous radicals in Bolivia describe themselves.
(5) MAS neutralised Mamani by naming him candidate for prefect of La Paz, where he has no chance of winning.
(6) Petrobras (Brazil), Repsol-YFP (Spain-Argentina), British Gas (UK) and Total (France) have all announced freezes of their investments in Bolivia. Multinational companies have invoked international agreements on the protection of investments to
challenge the new hydrocarbons law and protect their interests.
Translated by Gulliver Cragg
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED - 1997-2005 Le Monde diplomatique
AN ELECTION FOR CHANGE AND PROMISE
Bolivia: an Amayra for president
By Maurice Lemoine
Bolivians will go to the polls on 4 December - unless a last-minute ploy by the right leads to a postponement - in what will be a historic general election. For despite chronic divisions and rivalries, Bolivia's social movements are in a position to take power and make Evo Morales South America's first indigenous president.
THERE is a tin mine at Huanini, among the labyrinthine crevices of the altiplano (1). Compared with gold, silver, oil or gas, tin is a modest reason to pierce 240 metres into the earth and struggle through kilometres of oppressive tunnels, but it is a reason, and so 850 miners extract the metal, earning around $125 a month. The mine is open 24 hours a day. "And we work Sundays," says a miner, "to earn triple time." Huanini's workers have nothing to lose. When they have to, they storm La Paz, dynamite sticks in hand. "There have been deaths, but we played a key role in ousting Goni and Mesa," the same miner says.
"Goni" is Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, Bolivia's ultra-liberal president, overthrown in October 2003 by a popular uprising that left 86 people dead. Carlos Mesa was his vice-president and successor, who stepped down on 6 June 2005, after three weeks of unrest.
Since 1985 all Bolivian governments, including purported leftwing ones, have dogmatically pursued the economic policy set forth in directive 21060, centred on the privatisation of mines, telecoms, water, electricity, transport, and the oil and gas sector.
Privatisation of the tin mines brought 25,000 redundancies and a severe blow to the Central Obrero Boliviano (COB), of which the miners had been the heart. The COB was the main counterweight to state power in Bolivia from the April 1952 revolution until the
1980s, and led the struggle against dictatorship. But after the mining redundancies came factory closures and the fall of the iron curtain, and by the end of the 1980s the Marxist-dominated movement had lost much of its force. The social battlefield was empty, or so
it seemed. In fact, as sociologist Alvaro Garcia Linera explains, "Society then created other forms of representation and political action: social movements, structured around area networks".
Problem number one: surviving
The first were the cocaleros of the Chapare region. Producing coca was the solution to the locals' number one problem: survival. But Washington made no secret of its displeasure. In its crusade against narcotraffic, the White House is obsessed with coercive policies of
repression and forced eradication to get rid of coca and cocaleros, making no distinction between them. But a leader emerged to stand against the United States: an Aymara called Evo Morales.
In 2000 resistance started in Cochabamba, whose people kicked out Bechtel, the multinational that extracted vast profits from privatised drinking water. Things stirred in Bolivia. The establishment began to teeter. Spreading out from the cocalero movement, Morales created a wider, national body: the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), more a confederation of social organisations than a political party. Elected as a congressman in 1997, he lost the 2002 presidential election by a narrow margin, but MAS won 36
parliamentary seats (including Morales's own seat). Municipal elections two years later made it the largest party in the country.
Other organisations worked in parallel to MAS. These included the powerful Sole Confederation of Campesino Workers of Bolivia (CSUTCB), the social base for the radical Pachakuti Indigenous Movement (MIP), and the Bolivian Landless Movement (MST-B). The remains of the COB and its affiliated Regional Labour Confederations (COR), were active, along with cooperatives and water protest movements. Neighbourhood committees sprang up, most importantly in El Alto, a dormitory slum
perched on ochre dust 15 minutes' walk above the city of La Paz, and home to 800,000 former peasants and miners. There the Federation of Neighbourhood Committees (Fejuves) stood up to Aguas de Illimani, a subsidiary of multinational Suez-Lyonnaise des Eaux.
After water came the fight for gas. Bolivia produces oil and has the largest gas reserves in Latin America after Venezuela. The constitution enshrines the state's inalienable ownership of all natural resources "in the ground". But, shockingly, Law No 1689 was
passed on 30 April 1996 to allow private ownership of hydrocarbons as soon as they pop out from "in the ground" - right from the top of the wells. Exploration, exploitation, transport, refining and distribution all fell into the hands of the multinationals. Oil and
gas reserves discovered after 1996, or unexploited up to then, were considered new and therefore taxed at 18%. The rate on old reserves was 50%, although the most flagrantly artificial excuses often sufficed to have them reclassified as new.
Ignoring popular anger, Sanchez de Lozada planned largescale exportation of liquefied natural gas to California. The project would have enriched the Pacific LNG consortium but impoverished Bolivia. It involved the construction of a pipeline across Chile, Bolivia's sworn enemy since the disastrous war of 1879. When people protested, "Goni"
had his forces fire on the crowd. When they refused to be cowed, he fled to the US. Vice-president Carlos Mesa took over.
The forces representing the people shared two main demands: that the state regain control over natural resources and nationalize hydrocarbons, and that a constituent assembly be created. Under pressure, and with Morales's backing, Mesa organised a referendum on
hydrocarbons, held on 18 July 2004. A majority of 70% voted to reclaim their national property.
On 21 October Congress passed a new law increasing state intervention in the oil industry and creating a direct tax on hydrocarbons, 32% at production. Combined with the 18% tax already in force, this brought the state's share of revenues to 50%. Mesa tried to fight this law, which he considered abusive and confiscatory. Many, including MAS, saw it as a step forward. But the radicals of the COR and the Fejuves, along with the COB and the MIP, saw it as betrayal. They wanted full nationalisation and no compensation for ousted
multinationals.
This is the key to the chronic fragmentation of this powerful protest, which is capable of such unity in times of crisis. "Territorial, ideological, religious and class differences" divide the movement, explained Garcia Linera, whom many consider its ideologue: "This movement builds community-based units working on everyday problems - water, electricity. In times of tension, these turn into a force for collective action, which works as a mass movement at the peak of the confrontation, only to fall back into the old divisions once the common goal has been achieved."
Under attack
In the 2002 elections Washington joined the Bolivian right in branding Morales a "narco-cocalero", an "agent of Chavez and Castro", and a "friend of [Colombia's Revolutionary Armed Forces] the Farc". But now the MAS leader is being attacked from the left, as the more radical elements in the movement criticise him. "Evo is a traitor," claims Jaime Solares, leader of the COB. "He promised to fight for nationalisation and he hasn't done it. He's in cahoots with the government." There are many conspiracy theories that describe Morales as an agent of the CIA and believe in a US State Department strategy
to stifle social protest in Bolivia.
But Morales has stood firm: "There has been no pact with Mesa, no alliance. When there are unwelcome proposals, we reject them. When there are good ones, such as the referendum, we support them." MAS did attack Mesa when it transpired that the president planned to wait until the protests ran out of steam. The result was the opposite: the unrest did not calm as radicals and moderates from rural and urban areas increased efforts, even harder when the neoliberal right began to reorganise in its rich, white strongholds of Santa Cruz and Tarija. There, civic committees began to demand autonomy, allowing each region total control of its financial and natural resources.
Since most of Bolivia's oil and gas is in these eastern provinces, this was a ploy to allow a return to the earlier conditions that had favoured the multinationals, staunch allies of the elite.
El Alto descended on the streets of La Paz. There was a proposal to set up a revolutionary assembly, a basis for a workers' and peasants' state under COB leadership. For moderates, this proposed soviet, which aimed to overwhelm the conciliatory Morales, was a hard-left
provocation that would play into the hands of the right. The COB leadership called on the army to act, as though the years of dictatorship had never happened. Amid rumours of an imminent coup, Morales denounced the ambitions of the Nacion Camba autonomy movement around Santa Cruz, but he favoured a constitutional resolution to the conflict. The opposition, which is made up of many changeable and often opportunist organisations ready to make pacts, do deals and betray each other, would not compromise. Bringing Bolivia to a standstill, it forced Mesa to resign on 6 June 2005.
Constitutionally, Congress could have allowed the senate speaker, Hormando Vaca Diez, to assume the presidency. Vaca Diez, the senator for Santa Cruz for the Left Revolutionary Movement party (MIR), which had become neoliberal and corrupt, had support from the establishment parties: New Republican Force (NFR), Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN) plus Sanchez de Lozada's MNR. But the people did not want him, as a landowning grandee certain to appease the oil lobby. The revolt continued. Mario Cossio (MNR), speaker for the lower house and an ally of "Goni", was next in line. But Congress, fearing a civil war, took the safer option of Eduardo Rodriguez, head of the supreme court and the only candidate in a position to call early elections. He
negotiated a political agreement to end the chaos, and had Congress approve an amendment to the constitution (article 93), before naming the election day.
"Historic elections"
"These are historic elections," says Alex Contreras, head of the First of May People's School in Cochabamba. Given Morales's excellent chances, it is a widely held view. "For the first time, Bolivia's popular and indigenous movements are on the verge of taking power." Morales would be the first indigenous president in South America.
Yet after this joint triumph, the social movement's two main blocs returned to their quarrels. The more radical elements, grouped around the COB, the MIP and the El Alto Fejuves, are most active in the Aymara areas on the altiplano, where they make much of the ethnicity issue. MAS and its allies enjoy support among peasant farmers but have a more inclusive, nationwide approach. They are popular with urban wage-earners, having established links with corporations and integrated a larger number of mixed-race Bolivians.
At the COB headquarters Solares speaks of nothing short of a full "worker-peasant revolution: that means seizing power by popular insurrection". His symbolic vocabulary may be a ploy to divert attention from his shady past (2). "We, the workers, believe that we are on the cusp of civil war or revolution," he declares. An astute observer notes the COB no longer has many supporters, but "it hides its limited ability to mobilise - driven only by indigenous people and peasants -behind ultra-radical rhetoric. It poses as the left's guilty conscience. Solares knows his spiel is unrealistic, but he doesn't care: he keeps cornering MAS by taking the liberty to say whatever he likes."
Roberto de la Cruz, leader of the COR in El Alto, employs similar tactics. He proclaims radical ideas: setting up a popular assembly, sending shock squads to fight the cambas, creating an army of national liberation. He is ideologically confused, but decisive and
rousing in crisis, as is Abel Mamani, head of the El Alto Fejuves, said to have the virtue of understanding that resistance is vital. He has a winning hand in resistance, although he is politically inexperienced.
Felipe Quispe leads the CSUTCB indigenous peasants' movement. During the 1980s and early 1990s he led the Tupac Katari guerrilla army (EG-TK) until he was arrested and jailed for five years. Quispe dreams of a new Collasuyo (3). "We want to build our own confederate state, our own government led by an indigenous president, our own army, our own economy as the descendants of Huyana Capac, the sovereign government of the Incas." Seeing the situation as a race war, he makes no distinction between right and left among non-indigenous people, known as q'aras. His view of recent events was: "The people have triumphed. We beat both Mesa and MAS, which had done a deal with him."
Political and ideological differences between the factions exist. But the divisions are also, perhaps primarily, the result of personal rivalries. Quispe did not appreciate being supplanted by his younger fellow cobrizo (4), Morales, as leader of the indigenous peoples and the opposition at large. There is resentment from less powerful leaders, too. Mamani does not dispute Morales's position, but refuses to be subordinated to him.
Leaders of the COB, the MIP and the Fejuves are frustrated by the unique success of MAS in spreading from the local to the national level. These organisations all dream of forming a new political force, but none has the means to do so.
The combination of personal ambition and ideological confusion can have strange effects. Solares claimed that Morales "has never spoken for the workers or the proletariat: he only has time for coca, rural territories and [indigenous] identity" before announcing: "We are
going to form a grand revolutionary alliance with Felipe Quispe," the most intransigent indigenous leader in Latin America. Solares's vice-presidential candidature in alliance with Quispe and the MIP fizzled out. Mamani has promised to support either MAS or the group of six mayors (of La Paz, Cochabamba, Potos, Sucre, Oruro and Cobija), who claim to represent the modern left but are in fact deeply divided in strategic and ideological terms, several being markedly neoliberal.
Even the smaller organisations play hard to get. "Their decisions are not based on the underlying issues," says Contreras, "but on what will earn them the most power in Congress, being with MAS or against it." This climate has prevented, or at least delayed, the formation of any real alliance. Morales has been known to sigh: "If only we were as good at replacing presidents in Latin America as we are at kicking them out." He says: "We hope all parties will participate. But we have to consider the situation seriously. I do not take a maximalist position proposing armed struggle and insurrection, or a coup. I'm banking on a new social and economic model born of popular consciousness and democracy."
The demand from below
Is this a pre-revolutionary crisis with insufficient political expression? Not necessarily: the people do not always follow those who claim to represent them. In El Alto, as Nestor Guillon of Villa el Ingenio (Fejuves) explains, the demonstrations were originally organised by the leaders -"Comrades, we must take to the streets". But the situation gradually changed. Now, local residents decide: "We must get out and march." The demand comes from below. "El Alto's capacity for mobilisation doesn't depend on the Fejuves," says Guillon, "but on what neighbourhood and block-based assemblies decide. Without them, Mamani can call all the demonstrations he likes; no one will follow him." The majority of El Alto's inhabitants voted in the referendum on hydrocarbons, despite their leader's calls for a boycott. In so doing, they implicitly backed MAS and look
likely to do so again in the forthcoming elections.
Quispe shot himself in the foot in 2002 by renouncing his congressional seat shortly after being elected (for the MIP, which has six seats). "I'd rather do the political work I've always done, out in the field," he declared. Asked whether he hoped to return to parliament, he replied with characteristic frankness: "I wasn't born to be a congressman; I was born to be president." The episode damaged his reputation. "That attitude shows that he's not cut out to be a politician," Guillon concludes. Morales "took up his parliamentary
seat, has stayed at the helm, kept up the struggle and consistently opposed the system".
This August MAS scored a decisive point by naming Garcia Linera as its vice-presidential candidate. The sociologist had fought alongside Quispe in the EG-TK; he had been imprisoned until 1995. Garcia Linera is influential within the social movement. His position has earned him kudos and credibility: "I've been a guerrillero and I don't
regret it; I'm still the same as I was 15 years ago; it's just that I've changed tactics." Soon after his nomination, six peasant federations pledged their support to MAS, as did sections of the mining cooperatives, the important COR of Oruro, Potoso and Cochabamba, transport workers from El Alto and even the Fejuves (5). Garcia Linera's position as one of Bolivia's most influential intellectuals extended MAS influence into academia and the middle classes. Polls showed a surge in popularity for MAS, to the detriment of the US-preferred candidate, Jorge Quiroga of the ADN.
The neoliberals panicked. Hoping to gain breathing space, they sought to have the elections postponed. Forgetting that the early elections had only been called thanks to a political agreement to act outside the constitution, the congressmen of Santa Cruz went to the constitutional court on 4 August and pointed out that the constitution stipulates that seats in Congress be distributed according to the latest census figures. The results of the 2001 census had not been taken into account. Since it showed population rises in La Paz, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, they had the right to greater parliamentary representation. On 22 September the court upheld the objection, leading to uncertainty and unrest.
Whatever the precise date of the election, its main themes are already established: the creation of a constituent assembly and the nationalisation of hydrocarbons. MAS is confident of victory, but does not intend to do anything rash. "Nationalisation without
compensation," notes Contreras, "would take us back to the 1960s. But in such a small country, dependent on international aid, it would put us in a worse situation than Cuba faces with the blockade [US embargo]" (6). Garcia Linera agrees: "It is a question of power relationships. I favour a pragmatic solution. What are you going to do about Petrobras otherwise? [That company is backed by] the government of Brazil, a nation of 80 million people! We have to show prudence."
Morales sums up: "A lot of multinationals live off illegal and anti-constitutional deals, smuggling and tax evasion. We will enforce the law. But we are banking on nationalisation through dialogue and consensus." In perspective, this resembles the strategy of Venezuela's Bolivarian revolution under Hugo Chavez: development in
which the state plays a central role, but that can involve foreign investment. MAS's plans for a constituent assembly also resemble Venezuela -since the majority of Bolivia's inhabitants are indigenous people, it will be their majority assembly and will be granted full sovereignty, to the chagrin of the white elite.
The US is not wrong to brand Morales enemy number one. "It is no secret that Evo Morales reports back to Havana and Caracas," Washington's assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, Roger Noriega, said recently. To which Morales replied, on 31 July, upon formally declaring his candidature: "Chavez and Fidel are in no way part of any axis of evil. They are the commanders of the liberating forces of this continent." His moderation knows its limits.
(1) The high Andean plateau that stretches from western Bolivia to southeastern Peru.
(2) There is evidence that Solares used to act as an informer for state security services, turning in several miners' leaders.
(3) The eastern, largest province of the Inca empire: western Bolivia, parts of southern Peru, northern Argentina and Chile.
(4) Copper-coloured, as indigenous radicals in Bolivia describe themselves.
(5) MAS neutralised Mamani by naming him candidate for prefect of La Paz, where he has no chance of winning.
(6) Petrobras (Brazil), Repsol-YFP (Spain-Argentina), British Gas (UK) and Total (France) have all announced freezes of their investments in Bolivia. Multinational companies have invoked international agreements on the protection of investments to
challenge the new hydrocarbons law and protect their interests.
Translated by Gulliver Cragg
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